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Why Strategic Foresight has become a key competency
Strategic Foresight is not an “inspirational” discipline. It is not “imagining futures” in the abstract sense.
It is an operational method for identifying, before it is too late:
- the risks that can break a project,
- the opportunities that can propel it,
- the blind spots that destroy credibility,
- and the structural vulnerabilities that make a model non-financeable.
In practice, two methods are particularly useful, because they can be applied directly to a sketch:
Horizon Scanning
Looking beyond the project itself.
Scanning the environment to identify weak signals that point to:
- a technological disruption,
- a change in standards,
- a geopolitical shift,
- a cultural mutation,
- a market transformation,
- or a new requirement from funders.
Scenario Building
Building several coherent scenarios, then asking the simplest question:
In each of these possible worlds, does our project hold up?
And if not:
What needs to be adjusted now so that it holds up tomorrow?
What changes everything is that these methods are not an academic exercise.
They become a decision-making tool.
What this immediately produces in a project
When these methods are applied seriously, very concrete improvements begin to appear:
1) A prioritization of risks that prevents dispersion
We stop piling up lists.
We choose a few critical risks, those that can kill the project.
2) Real mitigation levers
Not promises.
Mechanisms:
- safeguards,
- clauses,
- proof mechanisms,
- pilot stages,
- redundancies,
- independent governance,
- cooperation rules,
- relevant indicators.
3) A clarification of public–private cooperation rules
Because one of the most dangerous areas for the credibility of an impact project is often there: ambiguity.
- Ambiguity around roles.
- Ambiguity around interests.
- Ambiguity around data.
- Ambi
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